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What will the new depression be like?

Well kids, this looks like it might be it... Car culture is on the skids. GM & Ford look like they might be going under and they'll probably drag much of the rest of the world economy down with them. The word "depression" has started to get some serious use in the mainstream media in the last few hours (a few hours too late) and it would probably happen even if they weren't allowed to use the word. So what's it, the depression, going to be like? Will another world war drag us out of it? That seems unlikely (seeing as how another world war would probably be uneconomical) but if it's not, what will another world war be like? Oh, the fortune cookie cursed us for we do indeed live in interesting times!
What do you forsee? Will the Republicrats save us or maybe the greenies will save us with a "California Uber Alles" policy ala the Dead Kennedy's. Perhaps Christ will float down on a cloud and prove to be a divine economist? Seriously, is optimistic hope enough to save us? I tend to doubt it, but I'd love to read some thoughts on the subject now very much at hand.

homepage: homepage: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE05Dj01.html

Is THIS what the chart of an imminent crash looks like? 06.May.2005 06:05

RA

I'll go out on proverbial limb and say -- yep.
 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GM&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m20,b,m100&a=v,ss&c=%5EDJI
I might be wrong... we'll see be market close 5/9/05 Monday afternoon -- if not sooner. Right or wrong, at least I'm plain about it.


I'm not waiting to see what happens 06.May.2005 11:13

buy local

I don't know about you, but I've been seeking out others who want to grow food, live car-free, and in general not have to be reliant on the global economy. We live here in an area with plenty of excellent soil and climate for everything we need.

For crying out loud, you can go outside and pick fruit off of trees, what does it matter if the economy crashes and you can no longer buy an X-Box?

depression? 06.May.2005 16:13

Rubby

Depression? Hell, I was just listening to NPR on my way home from work. They had a couple of bubbly commentators telling me how upbeat things were looking for the economy, and how investors were going to cash in. Jobs for everybody. Lady sounded like she'd just downed half a box of oxy and done 3 lines.

Great article in the Economist (last week's?) on April's stock market troubles.

what will it look like? 06.May.2005 17:16

Old Timer

I don't know what this one is going to look like, but I hear it's gonna make the crash of 1929 look like a frickin' cake walk.

The Long Emergency 06.May.2005 18:57

Corvallis

I just finished reading James Howard Kunstler's latest book called, The Long Emergency. This is a must read for anyone seeking to understand what has happened to civilization since the dawn of plentiful and cheap oil and what could happen when that plentiful cheap oil goes away or at least becomes more/too expensive to extract. (And don't forget about China, India and the other countries who will expect their share of oil that will not be there in the quantities previously available).
The best preparation as mentioned above is to find ways to live that requires as little petroleum based input as possible. So yes, tear up that lawn and grow your own food. Walk, bike and use mass transit whenever possible. Learn how to collect rainwater and manage a self contained water system. Learn to how to use human powered tools.
So certain is Kunstler that declining oil supplies will hit us square in the face sooner rather than later he states, "I own an automobile, a pick-up truck to be precise, but I don't use it every day. I expect it to be the last automobile I will ever buy. It is fourteen years old and has 85,000 miles on it; many Toyota engines run 200,000 miles."
While he doesn't predict when we will see our world change because of lack of plentiful oil, he certainly wants the reader to prepare for an imminent disruption of life as we know it.

many know, but few talk 07.May.2005 08:57

lela

There is a great expose on the world market and how it relates to the American economy.

 http://fergusonreport.myonlinepublication.com/article.asp?pop_id=161&article_id=69

site is made by conservative republican and former Senator Tim Furguson.
Enjoy.

hey "buy local" 07.May.2005 11:03

@

that's a pretty myopic view of things. imagine this, stock market crashes, shit is fucked, people in some parts of the world/country are doing well, while other's are fucked. you think all those that are fucked are just gonna sit in their shitty regions being sad about how good the folks in the northwest are doing?

right,@ 07.May.2005 12:17

,

best to surround oneself with mortars!! Better yet, start getting to know a group of fairly-like-minded people who will help each other survive!

And turn off the TV!

What about this? 07.May.2005 12:37

CWT

 http://www.changingworldtech.com/

What happens when/if oil can be made cheaply from waste materials?

not the solution 07.May.2005 14:54

@

just another excuse to create waste materials.

Thernal Depolymerization 07.May.2005 18:17

Corvallis

Not to step up to the soap box repeatedly regarding The Long Emergency but Kunstler addresses the very company linked two postings ago (Changing World Technologies). The premise of this system assumes there will always be plentiful cheap oil creating plentiful garbage. But when the oil flow is reduced, there will be a reduction in products/garbage needed to create this alternative energy. Not a long term solution.

asset siezure 08.May.2005 00:40

redundoid

property is more valuable than the tennant mortgage payers, banks and the taxburden have no override provisions in case of nonpayment due to economic collapse , a barbaric return to feudalisim would be the inevitable conclusion.

RE-TOOL GM! 08.May.2005 23:41

gaussian

how about retooling gm like in the days of WWII. this time, though, we can build the mag-lev train system our country so needs, repair the infrastructure, put people to work producing USEFUL things and provide all of us with a future. hmmm....
yup, larouche is calling for it. in fact, he called it a month ago and released an emergency action memorandum to the senate to put gm's machine tool capacity into receivership. goto www.larouchepac.com

GM's crash... 09.May.2005 01:14

RA

Considering the recent downgrade, and after looking the linked chart (

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GM&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=b,m20,m100&a=fs,vm,m26-12-9&c=

), do you believe the stock is going to continue moving towards the 100
day average or back towards the 20 day? All indicators seem to
suggest, to me, that the stock is going to drop below the 20 day.
Kerkorian's bid, made before the downgrade, was only $31 (which is
about where it's at) and I doubt he's going to get much pricing
competition if he really still wants to increase his holdings. Who is
going to offer MORE for the stock now?

R.A. Lewis wrote:
> HOW was GM propped up in such a timely manner and WHY has it not yet
> fallen below the pre-prop levels? We'll see by market close 5/9/05
> Monday afternoon...


 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GM&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=b,m20,m100&a=fs,vm,m26-12-9&c=


An Actual Free Market = Human Ingenuity Unleashed 09.May.2005 07:50

Anonymous

I'm not afraid of a crash anymore. I don't want to see folks put out of their homes, but our economy is such an Industrialst/Government toilet I can't think what else would free us from it but a crash.

I bought a disk on eBay that included an article by a rock musician who said he'd built a very efficient auto engine that used little gas. I forget the whole story but I think he patented it. Anyhow, two guys from the Department of Energy show up and tell him he won't do things to screw up the economy if he knows what's good for him.

Then there was the Texas farmer who instead of spraying had some bugs come in to eat the bugs he normally sprayed against, in a perfectly sanitary way. Texas Department of Agriculture thought it was fine, USDA did not, so they stopped him. Then there are the Legal Tender Laws, which say we must all use the unbacked dollar currency. (Apparently it's backing is partly drug sales and pillage. In any event, the dollar did not provide a stable instrument for working people to save. And the government can print as much War Money as it wants. It's bad. Duh.) How many things like that are there? Gee, I think I'll count the laws that say you can't take vitamin pills because Big Pharma can't patent everything.

When someone says "Free Market" they do not mean starving immigrants used for slave labor. They mean the absence of an "authority" to keep the biggest fish in power. They mean no industrialists buying their way into government, and no deevolved lawyers and Marxist or Socialist academics to say that government has any legitimate "authority". (As in non-Statist, non-government-centric life and economy, meaning "Limited Government".)

Human ingenuity works great. The materialist psychology of consumerism is a shame. But it produces the material goods people can use to eat, to live indoors and to communicate. Look at the computer you are reading this on. There is already a company making Segway-like devices at half the cost of the genuine thing. People don't want something cheaper and more convenient than a car? Think again. Then there's all the new health stuff, water purification, people trying to be more socially and spiritually aware. They're all over the place.

What's going to happen if there's a big crash and interruption of food is people will leave to find it elsewhere. Maybe have to use their muscles instead of their voices and fingers for a change. Many will lose hope but many more will help those around them to move on and to adapt, just as it was before we had all the free labor and energy that got us so fucking dumb and weak.

It's better we go back to being fucking dumb and strong, but a little smarter from our experience, and with the help of all this useful technology.

It's just life. Good luck to you.